Teachers’ average
earnings growth
First of all, the Report confirms the facts about
deteriorating teachers’ incomes and the replacement of older staff by cheaper
colleagues – colleagues, however, who may not stay long in the profession:
3.7 Over the last
decade, teachers’ average earnings have tended to grow at a slower rate than
earnings across the economy as a whole. Earnings growth across the profession
has been close to zero since 2010/11. This reflects the impact of the pay
freeze and the replacement of older, higher paid teachers with new recruits as
part of the labour market cycle”.
3.8 In common with
others across the public sector, teachers in England and Wales have experienced
two years of the pay scales being frozen, followed by a 1% increase in values
in 2013/14. Whilst many teachers have continued to receive progression-based
increments, others (approximately 44%), at the top of their respective scales,
will have seen little change in their annual salary during this period unless
they have taken on new responsibilities. We have also noted that teachers,
alongside the wider public sector workforce, are paying increased contributions
to their pensions.
Graduate pay
progression
The Report goes on to point out how poorly teaching compares
to other graduate professions when it comes to pay progression:
3.16 For many
graduates, an important consideration in occupational choice relates to their
expectation of salary progression in subsequent years … IDS found that in 2012,
average salaries of graduates with three-year tenure was 37% higher than the
corresponding average starting rate; graduates with five-year tenure had an
average salary some 71% higher than the starting rate
3.17 [However]
teachers in England and Wales have typically seen their salaries increase
through annual pay progression by 26% after three years (M1 to M4) and by 46%
after five years (M1 to M6).
Regrettably, some of the authors of the Report appear to
think that performance-pay is the solution to this problem, with the new
legislation allowing schools to award more rapid pay-progression to favoured
staff. Putting aside the difficulty of measuring individual contributions to
‘progress’ and the damage that it could do to teamwork and staff relations,
schools simply haven’t got the budget to award such accelerated pay
progression. For example, the employers’ contributions to the Teachers’ Pension
Scheme will be increasing by 2.3% to 16.4% in 2015. Far from accelerating
progress, the legislation will largely be used to block pay progression, meaning
most teachers will make even slower progress up the pay-scale than the STRB has
found so far.
Even the STRB has had to note:
3.18 Following
implementation of our 21st Report recommendations, schools now have greater
flexibility to set the starting pay of teachers, taking account of local
pressures, and to determine their rate of progression based on performance, but
the impact of this change on average earnings has yet to be seen in the data.
Future data will not be showing an increase in
average earnings! After all, as the STRB Report later acknowledges:
3.53 The overall
schools’ budget has remained flat in cash terms … We also note that forthcoming
changes requiring employers to increase their contribution to meet the costs of
pensions will accentuate the affordability challenge for schools.
Profession-wide
earnings compared to other occupations
The unfavourable position of teachers is confirmed when the
STRB looks at overall earning levels too:
3.19 Classroom
teachers’ median earnings (excluding leaders) trailed those of other
professionals in 6 (of 10) regions (Inner/Outer London, South East, East of
England, East Midlands and West Midlands), compared with 5 (of 10) regions in
2011/12. Across the majority of regions the relative position of classroom
teachers’ earnings had worsened since 2011/12. This reflects largely unchanged
teachers’ median earnings in both years. While some caution is needed because
of small sample sizes with the comparator data, this points to a continuing
deterioration in the earnings position of teachers relative to other graduate
professionals.
Recruitment and
Retention
So, if teachers pay is decreasing, pensions worsening and
workload increasing, what will this mean for the future supply of teachers to
meet growing pupil numbers?
3.21 The latest pupil
projections data for England show that ... between 2013 and 2017, pupil numbers
in maintained nursery and state-funded primary schools are projected to
increase by 8% (and by 15% between 2013 and 2022) … [after 2015] the increases
in primary pupil numbers will start to flow through into secondary schools.
3.24 In Wales, primary
pupil numbers are expected to increase by around 13% from 2013 to 2021.
3.30 Recruitment
against target to primary ITT has fallen from 103% in 2011 to 96% in 2013.
Recruitment for a number of secondary subjects was below target in 2013,
including maths (-10%), physics (-28%), modern languages (-17%), computer
science (-43%) and design and technology (-52%).
3.43 Our visits have
suggested to us that some schools have advertised unsuccessfully for more
experienced staff. The official [vacancy] rates also mask problems with the
availability of sufficient suitably qualified specialist subject teachers. We
note with concern that the average percentage of hours taught by teachers
holding a relevant post A-level qualification varies considerably and can be
low; examples are English (85%), maths (82%), chemistry (80%), physics (74%).
The conclusions
reached need to be publicised – as they expose the real threat to the future of
education if the attacks on the pay and conditions of the teaching profession
continue:
3.54 We have identified
some worrying signs in the recent data on initial training such as the
below-target numbers of recruits to both primary and a number of secondary
subject areas and have noted consultees’ concerns about the ability of the
School Direct model to meet the demands of primary schools. … The increase in
reported vacancies and the apparent shortage of suitably qualified subject
teachers in secondary schools, evidenced by the proportion of hours taught by
teachers with the relevant subject qualification, are a concern. …
3.55 We have also
noted the significant impending increase in demand for teachers as increased
numbers of pupils flow through the school system … These developments,
coinciding with clear indications of a recovering graduate labour market, mean
there is a real challenge for the sector in preserving the attractiveness of
teaching as a preferred profession for good graduates.
3.56 There is clear
and consistent evidence that both the starting and profession-wide pay of
teachers is less competitive relative to other professional occupations in
several areas of the country, and that this gap is widening. Our evidence also
suggests able graduates in other professions progress more quickly in the first
three to five years and have more opportunity to reach higher levels of
earnings as their careers progress subsequently. This heightens the risk of
those in the profession feeling under-valued and recruitment and retention
suffering as a consequence.
3.57 The reforms to
the pay framework in our recent reports have aimed to provide individual
schools with greater freedoms within the national pay framework … We hope, and
expect, that this additional flexibility will go some way to helping schools
address the particular localised labour market challenges they face. School
leaders will need to consider how best to use their limited budgets, and
available specialist staff, to gain the right balance between quality and
numbers of staff, in order to deliver the highest quality provision … However,
these changes may not be sufficient to meet the wider supply and demand
challenges in the medium term.
3.58 … Our analysis of
the teacher labour market has highlighted areas of risk; this is despite the
recent relatively benign climate for teacher recruitment and retention given
the wider economic landscape. It is our view that these risks will be
heightened as the economy strengthens and both graduates and existing teachers
see wider employment opportunities.
So, hidden in this
coded language is the truth. Government policies are putting the future supply
of teachers to support a growing school-aged population at significant
risk. However, labour shortages can also
help add to union strength – both in terms of reaching out to parents to expose
the dangers to education and in strengthening our negotiating position. Let’s
make sure that we take advantage of the STRB’s hidden warnings to bolster our
campaign to defend teachers and education.
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